End of 2015 brings further drop in architects confidence

• Drop may be associated with typical reduction in new enquiries received by practices at this time of year
• Large practices remain the most optimistic about workload and staffing levels
• Only 5% of practices expect to have fewer staff in the next quarter

The RIBA Future Trends Workload Index dropped significantly in December 2015, falling to +15 (from +27 in November 2015).

All nations and regions in the UK returned positive balance figures, with the exception of Wales and the West (balance figure –3) and Scotland (balance figure –50). In Scotland confidence took a hit in Aberdeen and the North East, possibly relating to the impact of oil price changes on the local economy. The South of England was the most optimistic (balance figure +30).

Large practices (51+ staff) were the most confident about future prospects (balance figure +67). Small practices (1–10 staff, balance figure +16) remain positive but sentiment among medium-sized practices (11–50 staff) was more pessimistic with a balance figure of –7.

The private housing sector workload forecast fell to +20 (down from +25); the commercial sector workload forecast likewise fell to +9 (down from +14). The public sector workload forecast nudged back into positive territory (+1) but the community sector forecast fell below zero (standing at –1 in December 2015).

The RIBA Future Trends Staffing Index also dipped in December 2015, falling to +9 (down from +14).

Small practices (1–10 staff) returned a balance figure of +9; medium-sized practices (11–50 staff) were more cautious with a balance figure of zero. Large practices (51+ staff) continue to be the most confident about increasing staff numbers in the next three months, with a balance figure of +50.

Only 5% of practices expect to have fewer staff in the next quarter, and the overall employment market for salaried architects looks to remain robust.

RIBA Executive Director Members, Adrian Dobson, said:

"This further dip in our headline index confirms that the overall direction of travel over the second half of 2015 has been one of increasing caution. However, the Workload Index remains in firmly positive territory overall and work in progress for our practices continues to grow, albeit at a more modest pace than in 2014 and the first half of 2015. It is also the case that we generally witness a small cyclical reduction in our forecasts in November/December as the number of new enquiries received by practices typically slows at this time of year.

"It is clear that whilst overall workloads continue to grow the environment is highly competitive. Practices have commented on the growing interest from clients in design to Passivhaus standards, and this is no longer limited to domestic projects. There seems to be plenty of evidence that knowledge of Passivhaus increasingly carries added value in the market for architectural services."

ENDS

Notes to editors:

1. For further press information contact Callum Reilly: callum.reilly@riba.org 020 7307 3757
2. Completed by a mix of small, medium and large firms based on a geographically representative sample, the RIBA Future Trends Survey was launched in January 2009 to monitor business and employment trends affecting the architects’ profession.
3. The Future Trends Survey is carried out by the RIBA in partnership with the Fees Bureau. Results of the survey, including a full graphical analysis, are published each month.
4. To participate in the RIBA Future Trends Survey, please contact the RIBA Practice Department on 020 7307 3749 or email practice@riba.org. The survey takes approximately five minutes to complete each month, and all returns are independently processed in strict confidence.
5. The definition for the workload balance figure is the difference between those expecting more work and those expecting less. A negative figure means more respondents expect less work than those expecting more work. This figure is used to represent the RIBA Future Trends Workload Index, which for December 2015 was +15.
6. The definition for the staffing balance figure is the difference between those expecting to employ more permanent staff in the next three months and those expecting to employ fewer. A negative figure means more respondents expect to employ fewer permanent staff. This figure is used to represent the RIBA Future Trends Staffing Index, which for December 2015 was +9.
7. The Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) champions better buildings, communities and the environment through architecture and our members. www.architecture.com
   
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