What are the global megatrends that are set to shape society, the built environment, and the architectural profession in the decade to come?
RIBA Head of Economics Research, Adrian Malleson introduces how we are responding to these megatrends with Horizons 2034, a new initiative that identifies some of the most significant emerging trends for the next decade. It aims to help members to equip themselves for the future.
RIBA Horizons 2034 is a programme of foresight, exploring four key themes that will characterise and underpin the next ten years. The programme offers not only an exploration of our possible futures but also a foundation for action today.
Time to look ahead
It’s been a difficult few years. Collectively, we have faced the challenges of Brexit, the pandemic, supply chain disruption, rapid inflation and ongoing economic fragility. As the Bank of England notes, smaller companies, which make up the majority of architectural practices, have been hit hardest [1].
For too many, the focus has been on survival, on getting through the near term, on just keeping the show on the road – whether personally or as a business.
All the while, climate change accelerates in urgency and effect. One thing has become very clear: the pace of change is unrelenting and accelerating. So, if the profession is not only to survive but thrive, foresight is needed to look further ahead, to understand and shape these rapid, but foreseeable, global changes. And not only to be subject to them.
Foresight is crucial for organisation leaders [2]. It’s about learning from the past and examining the present to anticipate possible futures. It’s there to challenge assumptions, change how you think, and give more options for present and future action.
It requires a deeper level of thought than often instinctive day-to-day decision-making. It also involves a degree of humility and knowing when to call on others for the future view. Seniority is not infallibility. Experts can help. So, too, can more junior staff.
Done right, foresight can help organisations to prepare better for what’s ahead, and so perform better than they might otherwise have done. It can help practices become more resilient, innovative, and better prepared.
What is horizon scanning?
A brief word about horizon scanning. Horizon scanning is used by many, including the UK government, [3] professional bodies, [4] and the private sector, [5] to think about the future. It is a systematic process for identifying potential future trends, events and issues that may affect businesses, organisations, society and people. [6]
Forward-looking, it helps organisations to respond to and shape their future in a world where the pace of change is ever-accelerating. It helps decision makers to make more informed choices. It is not about predicting the future but instead about spotting upcoming sources of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.
Horizon scanning is useful because it helps organisations to anticipate the future better and so become better prepared to face it head-on. It helps to ensure that adequate preparations are made, strategies adapted, opportunities identified and exploited, risks mitigated, and threats survived.
The importance of the future – and the past
Why 2034? Why 10 years? The choice of a 10 year time horizon focuses our view neither on the immediacy of the near term, nor so far into the future as to attract wild speculation. The changes likely to come in the next decade are already in plain sight: they just need to be brought into sharper focus. Importantly, it is a timeframe over which people have agency.
Collectively, we can influence and change what’s ahead by what we choose to do and how we choose to live today.
The 2034 date also marks RIBA’s bicentenary, an appropriate moment to celebrate its achievements and to look forward and prepare. Horizons 2034 seeks not only to stimulate thought and debate within the profession but also to prepare RIBA better for the future.
In 1834, RIBA’s founders came together to advance the profession by serving society. At the core of the RIBA Charter is the call for architects to come together “for the general advancement of Civil Architecture” and to promote and facilitate “the acquirement of the knowledge of the various Arts and Sciences connected therewith”. [7] And, in the language of the day, to ensure that the profession shares knowledge globally, by having “Correspondence with Learned and Scientific Men in Foreign Countries”.
RIBA Horizons 2034 echoes our founders’ vision. Today, by sharing knowledge globally, RIBA can also better serve society and see the profession flourish for the next 200 years.
Overview of the RIBA Horizons 2034 programme
In the spring and early summer of 2024, RIBA will be delivering a series of written scans from expert contributors in their field exploring the four significant global trends that will, in one way or another, directly affect the built environment, client needs, and the practice of architecture. The scans will be released monthly by theme.
The themes are:
- The Environmental Challenge
- The Economics of the Built Environment
- Population Change
- Technological Innovation
RIBA chose these themes because they capture some of the most pressing issues of today. There are other significant global trends, of course, and these may be covered later. For now, though, we will focus on these as the most fundamental to the profession and our shared future.
Each of the four themes is divided into four further topics, making a total of 16 topics, which are covered by a horizon scan. For example, the theme of The Environmental Challenge will comprise four scans covering: Mitigation, Adaptation, Biodiversity and Engagement and Activism.
The relationship between the themes
The themes are not discrete. Rather, there is fruitful interplay between them. For instance, consider the relationship between the environmental challenge and technological innovation. Will rapid developments in technology offer a way out of the climate crisis, or exacerbate it? Will the correlation between advancing technology and rising global temperatures persist, or will it break? Can the climate crisis only be resolved by deploying new technology to support new ways of living, or is faith in future technology only an excuse for current collective inaction?
No answers, but it’s worth our thought.
Expert insights
RIBA Horizons 2034 has provided an exciting opportunity to engage with thought leaders from across the world. The four themes are overseen by an editor who is an authority in their field. Each of the 16 scans is written by an expert contributor. Some are academics with expertise in disciplines, such as demographics and economics, which are less familiar to architects; others are design and construction professionals with deep industry knowledge. They all have insight to share and are committed to helping the profession to play its rightful part in shaping the future.
The scans are broad and not technical. They do not always represent the views of RIBA. Views are shared to start a conversation, not to give the last word on it. The expert contributors are disparate and diverse, coming from across continents and sectors of expertise.
They aim to share their expertise, to point toward what might lie ahead, and to invite us to act. They do not aim to provide definitive solutions to our shared challenges.
What to expect
RIBA Horizons 2034 is being delivered in the first half of 2024 and will be available to members via our website.
The first theme, being released at the end of March 2024, is The Environmental Challenge, followed by The Economics of the Built Environment (end of April), then Population Change (end of May) and Technological Innovation (end of June).
A final report will be delivered mid-year to summarise the work, reflect on it, and discuss its implications for the profession. Other activities are planned as part of the RIBA Horizons 2034 initiative. There will be forums for conversation between members and experts. RIBA Journal is publishing reflective pieces getting into the details about what the RIBA Horizon 2034 programme means for the profession and how key findings can be acted on in practice. [8] RIBA Academy is also hosting a series of webinars to explore the themes in greater detail.
What we hope to achieve
The buildings architects design and re-purpose will become the environment in which future lives are lived. They will shape how nearly all people live.
Fortunately, architects are among those leading the transformation of the built environment and the processes that facilitate it. RIBA Horizons 2034 will encourage new and innovative approaches to shared challenges so that the profession and the Institute can adapt to, and create, global change.
Our sincere thanks to: the theme editors (Alice Moncaster, Astrid Haas, Jane Falkingham and Phil Bernstein) and the scan contributors.
Adrian Malleson is Head of Economic Research and Analysis at RIBA. He is co-leading the RIBA Horizons 2034 programme with Helen Castle, Director of Publishing and Learning Content. He has recently also led on RIBA’s Artificial Intelligence Report 2024.
References
[1] Bank of England (27 October 2020). How has Covid-19 affected small UK companies?
[2] P. Carvalho and O. Woeffray (6 February 2023). The future isn’t what it used to be: Here’s how strategic foresight can help. World Economic Forum
[3] Government Office for Science (n.d.). Futures, Foresight and Emerging Technologies
[4] The Law Society (27 May 2022). Horizon scanning: what should your business look out for in the next 10 years?
[5] Zurich Insurance UK (8 June 2020) Risk management: the importance of horizon scanning
[6] Innovation Special Interest Group (2018). Horizon scanning: a practitioner’s guide. Institute of Risk Management
[7] Royal Institute of British Architects (11 March 2020). Charter and Byelaws: the Royal Charter Supplemental Charter and Byelaws
[8] RIBA Journal (7 March 2024). RIBA Horizons 2034: why foresight is important for business success
