International migration and displacement is one of four scans that forms part of the Population Change theme for RIBA Horizons 2034.
The global phenomenon of human migration is at the centre of contemporary public discourse and is often the subject of heated political and media debate. Regrettably, this debate is also often shrouded in misconceptions and anecdotal narratives.
This horizon scan dispels these misconceptions by providing a data-driven perspective on international migration and displacement. It seeks to illuminate the patterns, trends, and potential future trajectories of these phenomena, both globally and in the UK context.
The importance of migration extends beyond mere numbers. It is a force that shapes our societies, economies, and built environments. In some contexts, migrants – particularly those displaced by violence or natural disasters – have heightened vulnerabilities. These realities underscore the urgency of informed, empathetic, and effective policies for migrants and their communities.
In recent years, international migration has become an increasingly prominent driver of population change as fertility and mortality rates have declined in many parts of the world. For example, whereas natural population growth from the difference between births and deaths was close to zero or declining in South Korea, Germany and Canada during 2019, net immigration exceeded 100,000, according to data from the United Nations. [1]
Because international migration influences both population size and demographic structure, it has a direct impact on the demand for housing, public services, and infrastructure. For the architectural profession, this presents both challenges and opportunities.
Architects are uniquely positioned to innovate and adapt the built environment to accommodate the diverse needs and experiences of migrant populations. Whether it's designing sustainable housing solutions for displaced communities or revitalising urban areas to foster inclusivity and integration, their role is pivotal.
Professional membership institutes like the Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) also play a crucial role. By advocating for excellence in building design, they empower built environment professionals to rise to the challenges posed by migration and to contribute positively to society.
However, this significant task cannot be accomplished without adequate funding and a supportive policy environment. This horizon scan is therefore relevant not only to architects and RIBA Members but also to the wider community. It invites all to engage in a more nuanced, compassionate and constructive dialogue about migration and displacement.
The scale of international migration
International migration and displacement are complex phenomena, shaped by a multitude of factors ranging from economic opportunities and political instability to climate change and social networks. They involve the movement of people across borders, both voluntarily and involuntarily, and have profound implications for individuals, communities, and countries.
According to the United Nations, there were nearly 281 million international migrants in the world in 2020, making up 3.6% of the global population or around 1 in 30 persons worldwide. [2] While the absolute number of international migrants has increased over the years, this rise is largely a function of the overall growth in the global population and the increasing number of countries.
When viewed as a proportion of the world’s population, the share of international migrants has remained constant, hovering at around 3% since 1960. [3] This suggests that, despite the numerical increase in migrants, the proportion of people with a propensity to migrate internationally has remained relatively stable.
International migration does not impact every country equally. The effects of migration are unevenly distributed, with certain countries experiencing higher levels of immigration or emigration than others. In some Gulf States, for example, the foreign-born population greatly outnumbers the native-born population.
In most Western European countries, by contrast, the foreign-born population accounts for around 10% to 20% of the total population. In many other countries of the world, the share of the population born abroad is typically well below 3%.
International migration is often characterised by regional patterns. A significant proportion of migrants tend to reside in countries within the same region; see Figure 1 which illustrates the global migration of populations in 2020 according to data from the United Nations.
The curved arrows in the diagrams represent the connection between the region of birth (at the base of the arrow) and the region of residence (at the arrowhead). The width of the base of the arrows corresponds to the size of the migrant population in millions. Arrows are ordered relative to their size, with the largest migrant populations plotted at the beginning of the region segments.
Migratory regional patterns can be attributed to various factors, including geographical proximity, historical ties, shared languages, and regional agreements that facilitate mobility. Even in Western Europe, most foreign-born migrants are from countries elsewhere on the same continent.
Figure 1: Global Data Migration Explorer
View the interactive Global Migration Data Explorer for changes in global migration patterns over the past 30 years in full by Guy Abel (University of Hong Kong and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and Xavier Bolló.
Foreign-born migrants in the UK
In the UK, those born abroad made up an estimated 16.8% of the total population in 2021, which equates to 10 million people. [4] Unlike most countries, the largest migrant groups are from a range of origins both near and far.
For example, people born in India now constitute the largest foreign-born population in the UK, followed by those born in Poland, Pakistan, Romania and Ireland. [5] The largest group from a single regional bloc is made up of people born in the EU countries.
The dynamics of migration to the UK have seen notable changes over the past few decades. During most of the 2000s, the number of migrants from EU countries increased more rapidly than those from non-EU countries. This trend was influenced by several factors, including the expansion of the EU in 2004 and 2007, which led to increased mobility for people in new member states. Since Brexit, the number of migrants born in the EU has begun to decline, although they still make up the largest regional group living in the UK.
As in other countries, migrant populations are usually younger than the native-born population. This demographic pattern can be attributed to various factors. For example, two prominent drivers of migration to the UK are the pursuit of employment opportunities and access to higher education, which tend to attract younger people.
At the same time, older migrants already in the UK tend to return to their home country to retire. The net result is that the migrant population stays comparatively young.
Misperceptions on the level of migration
In many societies, there is a widespread misperception that the level of migration is higher than the actual level. For example, in 2014, respondents to a questionnaire in the UK estimated that the foreign-born population accounted for over 25% of the total population. This was over 10 percentage points higher than the actual value at the time.
A similar overestimation was found in many other European countries. The respondents most prone to the misperception tended to be socially and economically vulnerable (e.g. were in blue-collar occupations, were on insufficient incomes, and had low educational achievements). The misperception was attributed to a variety of factors, including media coverage, political discourse, and personal experiences. [6]
Forced migration
Displacement is a pressing issue related to international migration. The UN Refugee Agency reported that over 108.4 million people were forcibly displaced worldwide at the end of 2022 due to persecution, conflict, violence, human rights violations, or events seriously disturbing public order.
Although most of these displaced people had stayed within their country of residence, 29.4 million were forced to migrate across international borders, turning them into refugees. Another 5.4 million had claimed asylum abroad but had not yet obtained refugee status.
Cumulatively, approximately 1 in 10 of all international migrants were forcibly displaced, constituting a relatively small component of the global migrant population.
Most forced migrants move relatively short distances, and over 70% of refugees reside in neighbouring countries. [7] In the UK, there were over 360,000 forced migrants at the end of 2022, of which 127,000 were asylum seekers awaiting hearings for their cases in an increasingly long backlog of caseloads. [8]
Potential futures of international migration and displacement
Over the next 10 years to 2034, several scenarios could shape the future of international migration and displacement. Precise predictions about future migration patterns looking beyond a few months ahead are almost certain to be wrong.
Unlike other demographic trends (such as those related to fertility and mortality), there is no overarching theory on migration that can effectively predict future trends. Decisions to migrate are based on a complex interaction of perceived and actual levels of economic, social and environmental factors in both the country of origin and destination countries. They are also affected by potential migrants’ personal and household circumstances.
Choices of where to migrate are further influenced by an array of informal and formal networks between migrant communities and their home countries and the policies along each migration corridor. These factors are themselves subject to uncertain change, which makes future patterns of migration even more unpredictable.
Nonetheless, migration scholars have found some regularities that can reveal broad trends and patterns, providing a glimpse into how future migration patterns might evolve.
Migration is best framed as a by-product of economic development. In the future, economic factors will continue to drive voluntary migration, which makes up the vast majority of all movements. In the search for better job opportunities and improved living standards, individuals often migrate from countries with weaker economies to those with stronger ones. This is particularly evident in the case of labour migration, where workers move to places where their skills are in demand and wages are higher.
Economic downturns, on the other hand, can reduce the attractiveness of a destination country and lead to decreased immigration and increased emigration. Hence, the future of migration both to and from countries such as the UK will be closely tied to the performance of its national economy both in relative and absolute terms.
Changes in migration policies, both in sending and receiving countries, have the potential to influence future migration flows. In recent years, there has been a noticeable rise in migration policies concerning individuals with certain skills. These policies aim to attract or retain foreign migrants with specific skills and qualifications that are in high demand in the local labour market.
Another trend likely to impact migration is the gradual demographic shifts affecting society. Migration rates almost always follow a fixed pattern across the human lifecycle, peaking in young adulthood and slowly declining thereafter.
As fertility rates in many countries of the world fall below replacement level, the potential pool of populations in origin countries will slow, and consequently, the number of migrants might also fall.
Political instability and conflict will continue to drive forced displacement. The locations and scale of future conflicts are hard to predict, but their impact on displacement can be significant, especially for neighbouring countries that tend to host disproportionate numbers of refugees.
Finally, as the effects of climate change intensify, more people may be forced to move due to environmental factors such as floods, droughts, and rising sea levels.
Increases in the severity and frequency of weather events have been found in some settings to impact the likelihood of armed conflict, and thus play a significant factor in the size of forced international migration outflows. [9] To date, however, most migrants driven by climatic factors tend to move relatively short distances and within countries. [10]
The implications of future international migration on architecture
For the architectural profession, the future trends and scenarios of migration present both challenges and opportunities. Architects will need to design built environments that are inclusive, adaptable, and resilient in the face of changing migration patterns and displacement scenarios.
International migrants often choose to settle in major cities rather than rural areas when they first arrive for several reasons. [11] Cities tend to have a greater array of employment opportunities. They also have pre-existing migrant communities that share incoming migrants’ cultural heritage, language, and customs, easing the process of adaptation and integration for newcomers.
Districts within cities have developed over time into hubs of cultural diversity and social connectivity, making them attractive destinations for migrants seeking to connect with others from similar backgrounds or to forge new social networks.
A good example is Tower Hamlets in East London, which has witnessed waves of migrants over the centuries, including the French Huguenots and Eastern European Jews fleeing religious persecution, Afro-Caribbean communities after WWII and, more recently, Bangladeshi, Bengali, and Somali migrants alongside arrivals from new EU accession countries such as Poland and Lithuania.
The concentration of new migrants in urban areas is likely to have a direct impact on the urban density and housing demand in cities. Rising urban populations, thanks in part to international migrants, can result in greater demand for housing. Without adequate planning and housebuilding, this can in turn exacerbate existing housing shortages.
An influx of migrants into towns and cities can foster social integration and community cohesion, enriching the social fabric of neighbourhoods. However, it can also raise challenges related to intercultural dialogue and addressing socio-economic disparities between migrant and host communities. Urban planners and architects play a crucial role in designing inclusive public spaces and amenities that facilitate interaction and foster a sense of belonging among diverse populations.
Migration fuels diversity in the population, bringing together different cultures and traditions to the UK. This cultural diversity not only influences architectural styles but also fosters innovation and hybridisation in design. For example, areas around Brixton Market in London, the Golden Mile in Leicester and Govanhill in Glasgow reflect the diversity in their communities through their built environments.
Not only have they adapted traditional buildings for use as restaurants, shops and community centres, but they have also integrated religious institutional buildings such as mosques, temples, and churches to serve their communities. Architects can draw inspiration from diverse cultural motifs, materials, and construction techniques, which will result in a more varied and vibrant architecture.
Adapting architecture to evolving migration patterns
International migration can have profound implications for the built environment, the architectural profession, professional institutes like RIBA, and the communities they serve. Migration and displacement influence the design and use of towns and cities, impact population dynamics and community cohesion, and so pose both challenges and opportunities for architects and architectural practice.
As future migration patterns change, architects must adapt their practices to meet the diverse needs of migrant populations and displaced communities.
However, much of this adaptation is contingent upon opportunity and funding. Rather than allocating temporary housing in less affluent areas, it may be more beneficial for governments to acknowledge that longer term solutions are needed.
Communities might be better served if their governing authorities concentrate their resources on integration and community services tailored to the needs of migrant populations. Indeed, cities such as Amsterdam and Toronto have already implemented inclusive urban planning strategies that prioritise affordable housing and social integration for migrants. [12]
Collaboration between architects, urban planners, policymakers, and community stakeholders is essential in creating inclusive, sustainable, and resilient built environments.
Professional institutes such as RIBA can contribute to more equitable and inclusive responses to migration by advocating for excellence in architecture, promoting research and innovation, and fostering dialogue and cooperation.
Author biography
Professor Guy Abel is based at the Department of Sociology, University of Hong Kong. He is a statistical demographer working predominantly with migration data to better predict past and future movement patterns and gain a richer understanding of how migration varies by core demographic variables such as age, sex, and education.
He has published in leading scientific journals such as Science, PNAS and Nature Scientific Data and worked with several international agencies such as the International Organisation of Migration, the World Bank, and the International Labour Organisation.
RIBA Horizons 2034 sponsored by Autodesk
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References
[1] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results
[2] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. International Migrant Stock 2020 (POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2020), 1–6
[3] M.Czaika and H. de Haas (2014). The Globalization of Migration: Has the World Become More Migratory? In International Migration Review 48(2), 283–323
[4] Office for National Statistics (2021). Population of the UK by country of birth and nationality: year ending June 2021
[5] The Migration Observatory - C. Rienzo and C. Vargos-Silva (2022). Migrants in the UK: An Overview (Migration Observatory Briefing)
[6] A. Gorodzeisky and M. Semyonov (2020). Perceptions and misperceptions: actual size, perceived size and opposition to immigration in European societies. In Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 46(3), 612–630.
[7] International Organization for Migration (IOM) - M. McAuliffe and A. Triandafyllidou (eds.) (2021). World Migration Report 2022
[8] G. Sturge (2024). Asylum Statistics, (Research Briefing). House of Commons Library
[9] G.J. Abel, M. Brottrager, J.Crespo Cuaresma and R. Muttarak (2018). Climate, conflict and forced migration. In Global Environmental Change 54, 239–249
[10] World Bank Group - V.W.C. Clement, K.K. Rigaud, A. de Sherbinin, B.R. Jones, S. Adamo, J. Schewe, N. Sadiq, E.S. Shabahat (2021). Groundswell Part II: Acting on Internal Climate Migration (Vol. 2): Overview (English), 1–362
[11] International Organization for Migration (IOM) - R. Skeldon (2018). International migration, internal migration, mobility and urbanization: Towards more integrated approaches. Migration Research Series 53
[12] European Economic and Social Committee (2019). Innovative projects in housing can strengthen ties between refugees and host societies
